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we've been preparing for @polymarket parlays for the world cup at @sharexyz. coming soon! https://t.co/Ckoi8hcifH@scott_eth · 50 engagementTRENDING: FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 NATION TO REACH ROUND OF 16 My best risk/reward NO shortlist: > Scotland NO for 78c > Sweden NO for 77c > Iran NO for 83c This market on @Polymarket is not the same as to qualify from the group. To reach the Round of 16, a team must: > get out of the group > reach the Round of 32 > win one knockout match That makes the new World Cup format extremely important: > 48 teams > 12 groups > top 2 from every group qualify > 8 best third place teams also qualify > then comes a new Round of 32 The market can easily overprice teams that look capable of qualifying from the group. But qualification is not enough. A team can finish 2nd or 3rd, reach the Round of 32, and still get a terrible matchup. So for NO on I'm looking for teams with: > difficult group path > low chance to win the group > dangerous Round of 32 bracket if they finish 2nd > weak or limited attacking ceiling > important injuries or squad problems > too much dependency on one game state > not enough quality to win a knockout match That is why I like Scotland NO, Sweden NO and Iran NO. 1) Scotland NO for 78c Group C: Brazil Morocco Scotland Haiti This is one of my favorite NO spots. Scotland can absolutely fight for qualification from the group. But they need to win a knockout match. And that is where the problem starts. Why: Scotland are probably fighting for 2nd or 3rd place. Brazil are clearly stronger. Morocco are also stronger in tournament profile, athleticism, technical quality and recent World Cup experience. So Scotland realistic routes are: > finish 2nd behind Brazil > finish 3rd and hope to qualify > very unlikely win the group Scenario A: Scotland finish 2nd in Group C This is the best realistic scenario. But it is still not great. C2 plays F1. It means Scotland could face the winner of Group F. Group F: Netherlands Japan Sweden Tunisia So if Scotland finish 2nd, they probably get Netherlands, Japan or Sweden in the Round of 32. That is a very difficult matchup. Netherlands have far more individual quality. Japan have better technical structure and tournament discipline. Sweden have more attacking power with Isak and Gyokeres. Winning that knockout match is a very different task. Scenario B: Scotland finish 3rd in Group C If Scotland beat Haiti and maybe get a draw against Morocco, they can be alive. But 3rd place path is much less controllable. They can qualify, but then the bracket can throw them into a strong group winner. For NO, this is exactly what we want. Scotland might survive the group but still get a terrible Round of 32 opponent. Scotland summary: Scotland can qualify from the group. But this market requires more. They need to win a Round of 32 match. Their realistic 2nd-place route likely sends them into F1. Their 3rd-place route is unpredictable. The Billy Gilmour injury is also important. That makes Scotland NO for 78c one of the cleanest risk/reward options. 2) Sweden NO for 77c Group F: Netherlands Japan Sweden Tunisia This is a bracket risk NO. Sweden are not a weak team. Actually, they have a very dangerous attacking profile. Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, Anthony Elanga Dejan Kulusevski would normally be a major creator, but his absence is a big problem Sweden route is very dangerous if they do not win Group F. Why: Group F is very uncomfortable. Netherlands are the favorite. Japan are disciplined, technical and very hard to beat. So Sweden have a real chance to finish 2nd or 3rd. But that is exactly where the bracket becomes ugly. Scenario A: Sweden win Group F Very unlikely This is the bad scenario for NO. F1 plays C2. That could be Morocco or Scotland. In that case, Sweden would be very live. If Sweden win the group, YES becomes much stronger. But I do not see Sweden winning Group F as the base case. They need to finish above Netherlands and Japan. That is possible, but not the most likely outcome. Scenario B: Sweden finish 2nd in Group F This is the key NO thesis. F2 plays C1. And C1 is probably Brazil. That is the problem. If Sweden finish 2nd, they may run directly into Brazil in the Round of 32. That completely changes the market. Sweden can beat many teams. But Brazil in a knockout match is a very different level of difficulty. Scenario C: Sweden finish 3rd This is also rather good for NO. A 3rd place team can qualify, but the Round of 32 opponent becomes less predictable and usually harder. Sweden would lose control of their route. Sweden summary: Sweden are dangerous. But they probably need to win Group F to make YES truly strong. If they finish 2nd, they may get Brazil immediately. If they finish 3rd, the bracket becomes random and difficult. They have great forwards, but the path is dangerous. That makes Sweden NO for 77c a strong bracket risk play. 3) Iran NO for 83c Group G: Belgium Egypt Iran New Zealand Iran NO is the safest profile of the three. Not the biggest upside. But very logical. They need to survive the group and then win a Round of 32 match. Why Iran NO makes sense: Belgium are clearly stronger. Egypt have Salah and Marmoush. Scenario A: Iran finish 2nd in Group G G2 plays D2. Group D: USA Turkiye Paraguay Australia That means Iran could face USA, Turkiye or Paraguay. None of these matchups are easy. USA at home would be very difficult. Turkiye have far more technical and attacking quality. So even if Iran finish 2nd, their Round of 32 path is not comfortable. Scenario B: Iran finish 3rd Iran can maybe qualify as one of the best third place teams. But then the bracket becomes much worse. A 3rd place path usually means facing a group winner. For a team with limited attacking upside, that is bad. Iran summary: Iran can be uncomfortable. They can fight for 2nd. They can maybe reach the Round of 32. But to reach the Round of 16, they need to win a knockout match. Their G2 path likely gives them USA, Turkiye or Paraguay. Their 3rd place path is unpredictable. Their attack is limited without Azmoun. That makes Iran NO for 83c a strong conservative NO. Final summary: The new World Cup format makes NO markets very interesting. Because many teams can qualify from the group. But not all of them are good bets to reach the Round of 16. The key is the Round of 32. My best NO shortlist: > Scotland NO for 78c > Sweden NO for 77c > Iran NO for 83c @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport@predicti0r · 32 engagement
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